An insider’s view on what the plan really is about, as reported to me on Sepember 30, 2009
This Conciliation plan is a suggestion,it will only be acted upon by Expediency if and when SL orders Expediency to do so. Expediency council is SL’s very own council of experts, to whom he can grant/assign duties&powers. Originally, its role was to mediate disputes between the Guradian Council &Majlis. But its authorities were expanded. SL is following constitution by doing it. Contrary 2 wht many think, SL is not showing inability but finally showing action. Constitutional provisions accommodate situations in which SL can/should call upon Expediency Council to resolve grave impasses by helping SL as experts.
Expediency Council’s full name is Expediency Discernment Council of the System, which means “Assembly for defining/identifying good of regime” or “the ones who know best what’s good for the regime” (superseding Government)
So,expediency council will ultimately decide on exactly how to handle the situation, who to put on panels, etc. The Plan is only a suggestion.
It’s advertised as Rafsanjani’s plan, but he will actually mostly get to put it in motion and supervise its implementation.
On Monday Rafsanjani said he had had 3 meetings with Delsoozan (those who care - the writers of the plan) during which he said: “Everything I had to say, and my demands, were made perfectly clear during my Sermon (in July). If my demands are reflected in the document, I’ll gladly welcome it. However, I reserve my endorsement until a final draft is available and I can meet with them (Delsoozan) to discuss it.”
Panel membership is subject to negociations, even in draft. Each side is free to send their own suggestions for members. The Arbitration Council members mentioned in the draft are subject to acceptance by all sides. It’s pretty leveled, and should be approved by all parties. This is really an attempt to avert chaos, not a distraction.
The thrust for this is obviously based on “Rafsanjani’s 5 point plan”(sermon), Khamenei and principlist appeasement concessions made to Marja and Reformists. Mousavi’s role being solidified as Head of opposition (radical Reform).
Of course, if Mousavi can’t substantiate any accusations of wrong-doing, he’d pay the price while damage is averted for moderate Reformists and/Traditionalists. But there’s enough evidence to implicate Ahmadinejad and his camp that thisis provision is a formality.
Everything gets investigated, publicized. Karroubi and Reformists are out of immediate line of fire, but can contribute to helping in taking down Government/coup.
Mousavi’s role will be to prove that elections were rigged, which is the central issue of the dispute.
For other crimes, National Security Panel’s Report implicates half of IRGC leaders & a lot of cabinet. SL’s classification of that Report didn’t make this go away. People know. The Motalefeh leak is out there.
It won’t get better than this.
Following are informations I got earlier, on the same subject:
- Leaked doc is an old draft from before sending 2 SL.
- Document written by a 6 people team but they consulted many others incl R (3 times).
- Hadad Adel is 1 of authors
- R didn’t like the threatening clauses against M,if he fails to produce proof. Likely excised from current draft
- As hd of expediency, R has right of veto, amendment. This is elegant : expediency is SLs advisory arm 4 such situations. So,constitutionally speaking, SL wld comply w his duty if he authorizes Expediency to take over.
- As far as (insider) knows,this will b subpanels of expediency,so its under R & Rezaei/Larijani/SL supervision anyway
- Whichever way conciliation plan plays out,Rs Conservative coalition wins.
- Plan writers : H.Asgaroladi, M.Mirsalim, M.Bahonar, M.Nabavi, H.Mozafar, Q.Hadad-Adel
- Hadad-Adel is a NeoCon, rest are TradCons & pretty much in R’s camp. But Hadad-Adel had a disagreement w AN & is angry w/him since before elex. He’s on board w/R out of spite. (whatever happened, he was among 5 Ministers who were reportedly not willing to participate in new Gov.)
- Absolute certainty : Elex-Fraud & crimes of AN & Coup r sufficiently documented, that enforcing this plan will doom AN because all will be put to test & publicized. Rafsanjani knows this, Mousavi too.
- Plan is by no means an effort of Reformists or Greens.It’s a purely conservative effort. Coalition isn’t doing this for or even supports green.They r fighting for their own advantage, which helps green out of pure coincidence.
- Plan recognizes all parties as legitimate, stops persecution/prosecution until all is investigated.
- Members from all factions in panel
ARBITRATION Panel members as suggested before SLs review :
Mahdavi Kanni, Shahroudi, Valayati, Aboutarabi-Fard, Doa’i, Hadad Adel, Rohani, Asgaroladi, Mohajeri.
INVESTIGATION panel : supposed to be largely centrists, w right&left;mmbrs included. Being negociated.
CONCILIATION panel members are still being negociated as well.
The arbitration panel will have final judgment in case of conflict between investigative & conciliation panels. It is composed of well known people, and is expected to help people regain trust in the institutions.
Of the names listed above, only neocon, again, Hadad-Adel, who is more of an opportunist than anything.
Mousavi has yet to choose representatives for his faction, currently rumored : Beheshti
