As analyzed by an insider, February 12.
AN speech :
It had the breakthrough message of 20% Uranium & even up to 80% & above Uranium for a bomb “atomic shocker”. There was the space breakthrough with the 2 rockets (extended versions of Korean middle range ballistic missile, which if can it carry a load of 25 tonnes to outer space, is technically an intercontinental carrier.) That was a veiled threat, “Look what we could if we wanted to.”
My understanding is a lot of Green did turn up & join Gov rally, as was planned, & marched in silence or showed V but the heavy vigilante/Sepah presence prevented them from taking action. Protests were widespread but mainly in West & North West of Tehran. IRGC’s operations were excellently coordinated & very precise.
They kept Northerners from joining Azadi & pushed them back north & westward, separating them in to smaller groups,allowing them to keep ground & entrench, while attacking moving crowd towards Evin in 3 rings, which stopped the march with 3 raids of biker units dispersing crowd in 3 different directions back southward, where fortified units were stationed around IRIB&IRI buildings, using nearby buildings as detention center.
We will never know how many Green turned up. Aryashahr, Sadeghieh Sq, Enghelab, Shahrak Gharb, Ekbatan,Tehran Pars, Shahr Ara, Vanak, Amir Abad … were all Green pockets, yet contained by being forced to entrench&fight. That was the tactically superior move by IRGC : trap neighborhoods north of Azadi & keep them busy, turning the scene from rally to war for those neighborhoods very early on (Arya Shahr & Sadeghieh were attacked as early as 8 am). The battles could be be seen from windows. Under those circumstances, only the ones willing to put up a fight would join street battles.
Without the Northerners, who tend to be rather anti regime & internet savvy, other greens & reform sympathizers weren’t able to build up momentum among the 100,000 gathered regime supporters & Sandi drinkers to hijack the Gov rally. However yesterday was a tactical setback but not a defeat : the discreet greens at Azadi still carried the message of discontent and forced Gov media to cut off the live speech every now and then when people chanted.
The 10,000 arrests nationwide before & 1000 arrests in the early hours of 22Bahman did have a big impact on Green tactical abilities. A lot must be learned from yesterday.