MikVerbrugge

An Insider’s 22 Bahman postmortem.

As analyzed by an insider, February 12.

AN speech :

It had the breakthrough message of 20% Uranium & even up to 80% & above Uranium for a bomb “atomic shocker”. There was the space breakthrough with the 2 rockets (extended versions of Korean middle range ballistic missile, which if can it carry a load of 25 tonnes to outer space, is technically an intercontinental carrier.) That was a veiled threat, “Look what we could if we wanted to.”

Protests :

My understanding is a lot of Green did turn up & join Gov rally, as was planned, & marched in silence or showed V but the heavy vigilante/Sepah presence prevented them from taking action. Protests were widespread but mainly in West & North West of Tehran. IRGC’s operations were excellently coordinated & very precise.

They kept Northerners from joining Azadi & pushed them back north & westward, separating them in to smaller groups,allowing them to keep ground & entrench, while attacking moving crowd towards Evin in 3 rings, which stopped the march with 3 raids of biker units dispersing crowd in 3 different directions back southward, where fortified units were stationed around IRIB&IRI buildings, using nearby buildings as detention center.

We will never know how many Green turned up. Aryashahr, Sadeghieh Sq, Enghelab, Shahrak Gharb, Ekbatan,Tehran Pars, Shahr Ara, Vanak, Amir Abad … were all Green pockets, yet contained by being forced to entrench&fight. That was the tactically superior move by IRGC : trap neighborhoods north of Azadi & keep them busy, turning the scene from rally to war for those neighborhoods very early on (Arya Shahr & Sadeghieh were attacked as early as 8 am). The battles could be be seen from windows. Under those circumstances, only the ones willing to put up a fight would join street battles.

Without the Northerners, who tend to be rather anti regime & internet savvy, other greens & reform sympathizers weren’t able to build up momentum among the 100,000 gathered regime supporters & Sandi drinkers to hijack the Gov rally. However yesterday was a tactical setback but not a defeat : the discreet greens at Azadi still carried the message of discontent and forced Gov media to cut off the live speech every now and then when people chanted.

The 10,000 arrests nationwide before & 1000 arrests in the early hours of 22Bahman did have a big impact on Green tactical abilities. A lot must be learned from yesterday.

Summary : on his website, Rafsanjani talks about Khamenei.

Rafsanjani discloses some of his pre-revolutionary wealth & his ownership of Alborz Group, among others, using income to support revolutionaries & Khomeini.

He says his relationship w SL of some 50 years hasn’t been damaged, as some want the public to believe. He meets SL biweekly & they have frank, unrecorded discussions about affairs. He has no problem voicing his opinions to SL. His friendship with SL is intact on a personal level.

“About my open letter before the election, Ayatollah Khamenei told me that he has no criticism but would have preferred that letter to be published after the election.”

He say that certain people can’t deal with him having his own opinions & him not refraining from voicing them whenever he sees fit. He recounts Pre & Post revolutionary times with Khomeini, which affirm his leading position in the Revolution & having all affairs of Imam entrusted to him, making IRI possible in the 1st place.

In a side remark, he says that Khamenei found his way to Imam Khomeini’s disciples & the revolution later than himself, that he was 5 years his junior but he liked his opinions & they became friends.

He says they mostly agreed on issues , but there have always been minor differences in opinion.

http://hashemirafsanjani.ir/?type=emag1p&lang=1&id=1733

NSP source : all deals are off the table.

NSP source (February 10)

There’s no deal left on the on table. All have fallen apart. Jafari has assured SL that 22 Bahman will be the end of fitna & has received full powers. AN is to hold a provocative speech,boasting Iran’s arsenal of retaliatory weapons, nuclear program & ambiguously hint at a secret weapon. Front rows are filled with plain-cloth thugs, so AN’s speech is not interrupted.

In terms of boots on ground, IRGC is nowhere close to having enough soldiers to contain protests, if not resorting to extreme violence. Currently, not even 1/3 junctions to Azadi are manned & blocked to prevent Northerners from joining the rally at Azadi.

Total men on ground between Imam Hossein and Azadi is less than 3,000. If protesters manage to break & overrun just a few of those barriers, the entire stretch will be out of IRGC’s control & in people’s hands. NSP current estimate of protesters indicate to be around 2-3 Miillions.

SL has been made aware of the fact that neither the regular police nor the majority of IRGC units will be willing to confront masses. Despite having been given all facts & warnings, SL has turned down a last minute initiative planned to ease the situation & has essentially handed Iran to IRGC for 24 Hours.

Iran history : Shah 1973 speech.

Iran history : In a 1973 speech, the Shah stated he wouldn’t renew the 25 years Western Oil contracts, which were to expire in 1979.

He starts his speech by “There are truths that the ppl of Iran have to be made aware of”,”I have absolute proof of foreign companies violating our national interests.We will not under any circumstances extend this contract” He repeats remarks of PM Mosadeq, saying the Western consortium isn’t working in Iran’s interests. He recounts that due to circumstance, he couldn’t wrestle anymore from western companies in 1953 contract. “As a nation who honor their contracts, we’ll abide until 1979 but certainly not extend.” In the 1953 agreement, the main term was for them not to violate nation’s interests, which isn’t the case”,”We’d rather become a producing state than a client state past 1979”,”West has 2 options : insist on extending the contract & stop receiving oil or become clients of a reliable Iranian oil company that will guarantee its product delivery for 25 years at fair market conditions”,”We know our weaknesses & are not ashamed of speaking of them : We don’t have enough expertise to run our oil industry”,”We need skilled & experienced foreign experts to work for us (as opposed to foreign oil companies) & train our ppl”,”West should realize that this is a chance for reliable & stable energy supply”,”I can’t forgo my nation’s well being & allow our reserves to be depleted while our well being is damaged”,”Our revolution is about our future”

After that speech, private funding and foreign assistance was given to the Islamic opposition. Meanwhile, relations between Oil companies & Shah regime became less than friendly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGhbG57_tMk

Horrifying peykeiran report on continuing prisoner abuse in Gohardasht, Karaj.

Gohardasht - Karaj Prison :

300 Ashura detainees are under severe pressure by Intel agents in Sepah sections.

Ordinary prisoners are protesting, saying screams, noises, sobbing & crying of injured from Sepah section keep the entire prison awake.

Intel agents demand Mohareb confessions.

http://peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12819

Taeb’s crazy theory.

Taeb…

He tells Javan in an interview that the plan for announcing rigging in elections was devised 5 days before election day at Rafsanjani’s house in a gathering of Mousavi’s campaign managers. He says their assessment was that AN would win with flying colors & Mousavi stood no chance. Then a plan was devised to prepare the ground for announcing fraud & rigging in elections. He continues that the slogans of AN are preparation for the just rule of Imam Mahdi & don’t permit for any reconciliation with the enemy.

Insider Insight : A.Khatami, SL assassination plot, Rafsanjani, 22Bahman.

As analyzed by an Insider,  January 28, 2010 :

Why did Ahmad Khatami, an anti Rafsanjani & pro SL coup supporter try to portray himself as a unifier & mediator between Rafsanjani & Yazdi? This, to me, is a telling sign. His intervention, although none of the information is confirmed other than the reports, could be by orders received from SL.

This is a behavior pattern we have seen before. Since if SL intervened & tried to end the spat, he would run the risk of not being heeded, he sends a “trooper.” Khatami announcing an end of spat & taking all credit for it in a phone interview with Fars, while having actually been unable to convince Rafsanjani not to publish his revealing letter could be a final effort to stop Rafsanjani from really doing it.

It seems that SL has no appetite for new fights & is pondering what to do next but realizes that his authority has diminished to its lowest point & it doesn’t seem that his speeches carry any weight in any camp anymore.

On one hand, he has his bulldogs who he can’t chain anymore & on the other, angry conservatives & furious opposition & worst of all, people who are no longer willing to stand down. His plan to sacrifice a few has backfired, with him being threatened if he continues this path.

After all, hardly anyone believes that SL was not head of coup & responsible for crimes committed. It is obvious by opposition moves & Rafsanjani’s comments that patience is running out on the reformist & coalition side, &they want a deal now or will break their silence & fight but this time, they won’t spare SL.

On the othr hand, Sepah & Mesbahieh hv no intentions of backing down or surrendering & will fight this through. Rafsanjani had told SL how he thought it would end if he doesn’t stop AN&Co days before the election, SL didn’t answer.

The possibility of assassination attempt on SL isn’t surprising. Seriously, no one, especially not Mesbah, even accepts or likes SL. No one in coup ranks really has any respect for him. There is absolute clarity for coup heads taht if they lose this battle, they’ll have nowhere to run & eventually will be held responsible for their crimes. SL is a partner in their crimes & if they are abandoned, it’s conceiveable that they’d think about assassinating SL or at least threaten him with the possibility.

Furthermore, the issue Khobregan authority, or lack thereof, in firing SL, which was at the center of a controversy between Rafsanjani & coup clergy in the past weeks & SL’s two recent “Straight to the point” speeches being total non-events for all, including Government media at least hints at the issue of “life after Khamenei” being debated, at least among some.

However, in all camps they seem to forget the people & 22Bahman. It appears to me that in a desperate attempt to strike deals prior 2Feb, which would have maybe helped defuse popular uprising, the true battle is in the making & rifts are now deepening & demands widening. This could amplify 22Bahman’s inpact, further weaken regime &  boost people’s morale.

All in all, IRI seems to be an outgoing model.

Parleman : Rafsanjani / Yazdi truce unlikely.

Parlemannews : Rafsanjani didn’t accept plea of Ahmad Khatami not to publish letter on Yazdi. Safirnews reports that , in reply to A.Khatami’s request not to publish the letter he announced, in exchange of Yazdi not repeating such acts, Rafsanjani said: “I’ve written the letter not for personal reasons, but for sake of regime.” Article suggests that Rafsanjani never agreed to a truce & certainly didn’t agree not to publish the revelation letter on Yazdi & his companions.

A supporting fact for this news is that Tuesday headline news which reported on Rafsanjani’s intention on revealing facts is now the top news on Rafsanjani’s website again, unaltered.

http://parlemannews.net/?n=7935

NSP Source : Coup may assassinate Khamenei if he backs Moderates.

(January 27 & 28, 2010) NSP Source :

The situation is tense. There have been external & internal developments, adding further national security risks & dangers to be considered.

The behind closed door sessions are on 24/7. A disaster is in the making which needs all our attention & all the resources we can dedicate to counter.

No matter how, we have to defuse AN & Mesbahieh now, even if its by dealing with the devil, or Iran might not recover from this in the 21st Century.

Right now, it’s all about succession of SL. Rafsanjani & Marja want a return to pre-1368 constitution & an Assembly to take over leadership.

Coup circle wants to keep the current absolute rule. If Khamenei steps down or dies, AN, S.Larijani* and Janati would take over powers of Leader. This is a most horrifying scenario.

We have to deal with lesser evil (being Khamenei) to avert this catastrophic turn of events, which can happen any time. Khamenei is all that remains before a total takeover of the country by coup, & they are only an assassination away from their dreams.

We have credible intelligence that Janati, Yazdi, Mesbah, Mojtaba, AN, Javani, Jafari, Mortazavi, Taeb, Radan & the people loyal to them are planning to assassinate Khamenei in case he backs the coalition & places a leadership assembly as his successor.

Coup has prepared the ground for a “terror wave” by “counterrevolutionaries” for this one eventuality: That SL decides to remove AN & Coup forces & give the coalition a green light.

Strange days. Protecting SL’s life is now a top priority & the danger imminent & very real. We have to convince SL by providing more evidence or they will eventually succeed.

*Note : Sadeq Larijani isn’t part of Coup. He is mentioned because the current constitutional provision dictates an assembly of the President, Head of Judiciary & a Cleric of Guardian Council are to take over in case SL dies or is fired.

Media war : Tehran Prosecutor blasts coup media.

Tehran Prosecutor summons Islamic Guidance officials.

He informs of ex-IRNA Chiefs conviction and arrest of Hemmat officials.

He says he will act against (Government supporting) media spreading false news.

He criticizes Guidance ministry for arbitrarily banning some of the media while others openly violate laws by spreading lies & offending top Regime & Government Officials.

http://ayandenews.com/news/17861/