Source : Supreme Security National Council divisions, and analysis.
Reported by an inside source, December 16th.
According to a report made by Armed Forces Intel & Internal security to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC):
- The situation can be contained for the time being with the armed forces presence in larger cities, but soldiers on continuous standby throughout country and the rapidly deteriorating overall situation will wear military off, and potentially trigger their uprising, and make them take side with the people of towns they’re deployed in, unnerved by the length of time of missions away from home.
- Although no effort has been spared to gather crowds from villages and schools for An’s visits in the 3 largest provincial capitals, only a few thousands turned up, with a largely indifferent attitude.
The report was handed to Khamenei by members of SNSC without AN’s approval(AN is SNSC chairman.)
In last week’s SNSC meeting, AN’s faction presented a report of IRGC’s Sarollah base (Central Intel & Security Unit) which says:
- “Situation is entirely under control. Government & IRGC’s concerted relentless efforts crushed the ‘velvet coup’ against regime, and with the ever-ready presence of Sepah, popular gatherings & demonstrations have become impossible.”
- “It is paramount that SNSC approves the hasty arrest & prosecution of Mousavi & Karoubi, and also orders limitations of activity for Rafsanjani, and around the clock surveillance. With such,the will of the last of opposition will be crushed before the (Iranian) year’s end and the nation will return to calm & order.”
Sarollah testifies AN’s Government to be stable & sustainable, and asks for continuation, or extension, of IRGC’s mandate by SNSC which put it in charge of the nation’s security and the crushing of protests.
This report was met with surprise by some senior members of SNSC, because it contradicted all other intel & military reports.
SL has received these two SNSC reports : the Sarollah one is signed by AN but not signed by some senior council members and the other one is signed by the latter & not by AN and his cronies.
SL seems to favor IRGC’s version again.
Source’s take on the current events :
“Here’s what is happening within our military & intel community: Whoever deviates from Sarollah’s assessment is either fired or accused of being with the opposition. The last real military & security analysts (not Basiji kids writing pamphlets) work for the Strategic Planning Office of the Expediency Council,headed by Yasser Hashemi (Rafsanjani).
IRGC’s main interest is to silence that last source of true assessment,so that SL stops questioning their reports. That isn’t possible as long as Rafsanjani is the person who Artesh & Independent Security Analysts officially report to. IRGC’s plan is to silence all voices and assure SL of his rule over the country, while grabbing whatever they can grab from whoever they can.
Soon, with successful nuclear bomb tests,they will solidify their rule by deterrent against foreign threats, which will free up resources to “purify” Iran & get rid of the last of the resistance and opposition.”
