Leaked: NSP assessment of Ayatollah Montazeri funeral and Ashura expectations.
Leaked NSP assessment of Ayatollah Montazeri and Ashura expectations.
NSP estimates over 800,000 people participated in Qom funeral procession (80% of them were from Qom surroundings & NajafAbad). Almost 3 Million mourning people gathered nationwide, despite news & broadcast ban.
For Ashura, NSP estimates well over 2 Million in Tehran & up to 8 Million nationwide.
According to 17th Division of Qom’s Analysis (among others), around 70% of ordinary ppl who mourned clearly sympathized with green movement, of which more than half is now considering taking an active role on Ashura.
Level of animosity towards regime&SL displayed by masses, and level of sympathy shown by security forces towards protesters, worry the panel.
NSP estimates any violent action by Government forces on Ashura would cause a massive escalation & would be answered to in kind.
NSP sees gravest danger (of escalation if Gov represses) as due to the emotional state of mourners during Ashura, multiplied by recent death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and angered by Government media defamations, SL’s recent remarks, and mourners being attacked.
They think (repression on Ashura) will most likely ignite a massive revolt & clashes, which regime forces will have no resources to contain.
In that case, the Regime’s only alternative will be to surrender or face annihilation in a
fast & devastating meltdown of order, which will end in absolute chaos, as seen during the 1357-58 revolution (1979-80.)
NSP doesn’t offer any way out of the crisis other than stand-down of Government forces & surrendering to popular will.
It is expected that IRGC’s Sarollah report will contradict this one.
