Insider Opinion : SL’s main intention is to save his own neck.
As analyzed by an Insider, January 9, 2010
Today’s SL speech seems in line with yesterday’s coalition leak.
SL appropriated Rafsanjani talking points : he asked for Moderation, adherence to laws, no rogue actions, end of hostilities.
He didn’t talk of soft war, he declared all attempts of usual enemies as failed, told IRGC, Basij & Hezbollahi to stand down & leave all to law & responsible bodies, end tarnishing & attacking. The unmistakable stand down order to Basijis & Hezbollahis & clarification of legitimacy by people (closing sentence) are important signs as well.
It’s really late for SL to make concessions. People are now focused on him as enemy no.1 & not AN because people don’t consider AN legitimate anyway.
My problem with SL is his shakiness. He’s neither sincere nor is he willing to give away more power to any side. Next crisis he might turn back to crazies.
The main reasons for his turn-around are:
- Proof that IRGC & Basij won’t be able to contain an uprising & things can really go wrong for Regime
- His effective loss of control over coup forces.
- Country at verge of financial collapse
- Direct targeting of his person as unifying factor in Ashura protests.
- Threat of moderates conservatives & Clergy abandoning his sinking boat.
- Changing sides as well as mounting pressure from within armed & Security forces.
I caution that SL’s main intention is to save his own neck by giving more latitude to coalition while leashing coup forces. He will not allow dismantling of coup forces unless he is safe & assured of concessions by the coalition & greens. His speech and strategy of “blame it on whoever as long as it’s not me” & thawing relations with coalition is out of fear of what could happen on 22Bahman & the 9 days leading up to it.
There’s a distinct divergence of horizons where the Coalition has medium term goals, green have long term strategies, while SL is concerned with tactical retreat & regroup maneuvers. It’s hardly conceivable that coup lords will go down without putting up a fight.
To show good will and follow up on his speech, SL has to now appoint new loyal commanders to armed & security forces, and remove all coup forces from positions of power that could become dangerous to him while keeping green at bay.
It is as much an attempt to win time, as the potential start of a course he won’t be able to change direction from.
To me, this echoes Gorbachev after the coup & Yeltsin bringing down the Soviet Union that he just helped save from the military. But even in the best case scenario, SL won’t be regarded as a Yeltsin type figure but as an evil that people had to put up with to avoid more hardship & restore order…
