Insider Opinion : Not a single Official is unaware of who’s behind the terror acts.
As analyzed by an Insider, January 17, 2009.
Due to the SNSC’s latest decisions & SL’s conciliatory approach towards conservatives, traditionalists & the “less hostile” reformists rallied around Rafsanjani, there will likely be no hostility and few provocations in the lead up to 22Bahman, in order to avoid what could otherwise be an unstoppable popular revolt the regime has no means to contain.
The basis of ceasefire are Rafsanjani’s suggestions in his last Friday Prayers. Mousavi & Karoubi seem to be going along with this coalition of resistance, which has no formal or physical presidium, & coordinates its moves based on minimal meetings of a few individuals & aligns its strategies on announcements & moves by Rafsanjani’s camp.
The current agreement binds both sides to curb rogue elements within their ranks but allows criticism, within the framework of law, as an essential appeasement & pacifying tool for masses &, especially, armed forces. However it was forbidden to insult or attack top regime personalities. (Essentially #1 & #2 : SL & Rafsanjani.)
If this course is maintained by the “Top 2”, AN’s fate is sealed. Hemat (AN’s mediatic “voice”) broke the agreement’s terms with its cover story, positioning Rafsanjani as a Godfather figure, with his little companions “besieging” the “just & divine” Government & SL. That issue was banned by Judiciary, but Hemat modified the cover slightly & printed a second edition, which wasn’t stopped by Government officials.
The terror attacks by Sepah’s Intel security, were mainly a threat to SL&R not to attempt to remove their commanders from power or they will physically go after them. There’s not a single Official or regime dignitary that is unaware of who’s behind those terror acts.
The Hemat breach, and terror acts have actually reinforced the coalition’s hand.
As Expediency Council’s Talaei said, there’s no “competition” between the main principles of constitution. He meant SL is not above other organs. These principles include Experts by way of public election; Islamic principles, as defined mostly by Marjas (not SL), democracy & justice.
Talaei is a Senior member of Expediency’s (greater Tehran) regional commission for Policy, Security & National Defense. His declaration was a direct answer to unqualified remarks made by the Mesbahieh camp (Like Taeb’s, for example.)
Rafsanjani’s camp is making maximum use of the truce period to rally popular support for their minimal demands (basically Rafsanjani’s Friday Prayers/Mashhad demands) & encouraging officials & the elite to break silence & push in same direction & finally triumph with an unprecedented show of force & unity on 22 Bahman. If this succeeds, SL won’t be able to deviate from it afterwards, which means his gradual sidelining at best & his dismissal at worst.
Legal & founded criticism of SL’s handling of affairs is growing. For example, a 13 years old letter was published. 136 MPs wrote to SL on the manipulation of Majlis election by Guardian Council.
(During the 1375 Majlis elections, most Reformist candidates, including MPs already serving, were barred from running by the Guardian Council for “lack of Islamic Qualification”. This resulted in barred Reformists’ vacant seats being grabbed by SL sympathizers. This was guided by SL & as if the meddling was not enough, he held a victory speech on that election, in which he said : “This election was an “insurance policy” for the Islamic Revolution.” MPs’ letter asked SL how such a manipulation & violation of the constitution could be called an “insurance policy” of the Revolution, & warned that such actions would lead to totalitarianism, corrupt the regime & cause the downfall of IRI by popular revolt.)
This campaign is disarming SL rapidly, loosening the chains that held the floodgates of dissent & dismay of the regime elites directed at SL personally. It forces SL into a position of retreat & passivity, & causes rifts in ranks of coup forces. The way I see it, coalition is forcing entire elite to take a position for or against coup. “Be with coup forces or speak up.”
In a recent Spiegel interview, Ayatollah Montazeri’s son interestingly said “he doesn’t care if the future regime is a Secular Republic or Islamic or a Kingdom, provided people can live freely & comfortably, human rights are a reality & people’s voices are heard.”
All of this opens up the possibility of regime change by legal means.
