Insider Insight : A.Khatami, SL assassination plot, Rafsanjani, 22Bahman.
As analyzed by an Insider, January 28, 2010 :
Why did Ahmad Khatami, an anti Rafsanjani & pro SL coup supporter try to portray himself as a unifier & mediator between Rafsanjani & Yazdi? This, to me, is a telling sign. His intervention, although none of the information is confirmed other than the reports, could be by orders received from SL.
This is a behavior pattern we have seen before. Since if SL intervened & tried to end the spat, he would run the risk of not being heeded, he sends a “trooper.” Khatami announcing an end of spat & taking all credit for it in a phone interview with Fars, while having actually been unable to convince Rafsanjani not to publish his revealing letter could be a final effort to stop Rafsanjani from really doing it.
It seems that SL has no appetite for new fights & is pondering what to do next but realizes that his authority has diminished to its lowest point & it doesn’t seem that his speeches carry any weight in any camp anymore.
On one hand, he has his bulldogs who he can’t chain anymore & on the other, angry conservatives & furious opposition & worst of all, people who are no longer willing to stand down. His plan to sacrifice a few has backfired, with him being threatened if he continues this path.
After all, hardly anyone believes that SL was not head of coup & responsible for crimes committed. It is obvious by opposition moves & Rafsanjani’s comments that patience is running out on the reformist & coalition side, &they want a deal now or will break their silence & fight but this time, they won’t spare SL.
On the othr hand, Sepah & Mesbahieh hv no intentions of backing down or surrendering & will fight this through. Rafsanjani had told SL how he thought it would end if he doesn’t stop AN&Co days before the election, SL didn’t answer.
The possibility of assassination attempt on SL isn’t surprising. Seriously, no one, especially not Mesbah, even accepts or likes SL. No one in coup ranks really has any respect for him. There is absolute clarity for coup heads taht if they lose this battle, they’ll have nowhere to run & eventually will be held responsible for their crimes. SL is a partner in their crimes & if they are abandoned, it’s conceiveable that they’d think about assassinating SL or at least threaten him with the possibility.
Furthermore, the issue Khobregan authority, or lack thereof, in firing SL, which was at the center of a controversy between Rafsanjani & coup clergy in the past weeks & SL’s two recent “Straight to the point” speeches being total non-events for all, including Government media at least hints at the issue of “life after Khamenei” being debated, at least among some.
However, in all camps they seem to forget the people & 22Bahman. It appears to me that in a desperate attempt to strike deals prior 2Feb, which would have maybe helped defuse popular uprising, the true battle is in the making & rifts are now deepening & demands widening. This could amplify 22Bahman’s inpact, further weaken regime & boost people’s morale.
All in all, IRI seems to be an outgoing model.
